Early Morning Comments w/extended outlook

This report is probably the most important on the Energy.Net site. It is usually prepared by meteorologists Charlie Notis or Dan Hicks and is available about 7:00 AM Central Time each day that the markets are open. The report consists of three main parts. The first gives a very brief 1-2 sentence regional outlook of the next 8 days. The second gives a very detailed forecast of the next couple days for each U.S. region. Finally, the third and probably most important part, describes the overall U.S. weather pattern for the next 1-2 weeks. Within this part, a description of the 6-10 day outlook is also found. Specific 8 day temperature forecasts for key cities is at the end of the extended outlook.

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Sample Report:

Current Energy Market
Morning Weather Update

NORTHEAST-Generally above to much above normal temps.

MIDWEST-Much above temps. Best chance of some rain early next week.

SOUTHEAST-Above to much above temps. Little or no rain until early to mid next week.

NORTHWESTERN U.S.-A little above normal temps and quite stormy.

SOUTHWESTERN U.S.-Mostly above to much above normal temps.

FREESE-NOTIS HIGHLIGHTS and SHORT RANGE FORECAST FOR ENERGY USAGE 6:00 AM CDT, TUESDAY, 11-24-98

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MIDWESTERN U.S.(NE to OH and southern MN to southern IL) - It was another balmy day yesterday with temps averaging 10-17 degrees above normal. Chicago reached 60 (normal is 43). Temps early this morning were mostly in the 30s but there were a few 20s in the north. Chicago was 36 at 5:00 AM (normal is 27). It will continue mostly dry and unseasonably warm the next couple of days. Highs today will mainly be in the 50s but it will reach the 60s in the west and south. Central NE may be near 70. Lows tonight will be in the 30s and few 40s while highs tomorrow will again be mainly in the 50s. Extremes tomorrow will range from the mid to upper 40s in southern MN. to the 60s in MO through southern IL. Chicago will reach 56 today, dip down to 39 tonight, and back up to a wonderful 57 tomorrow.

NORTHEASTERN U.S. MEGALOPOLIS - Highs yesterday were in the balmy upper 50s and 60s in the big cities. It was still in the 50s early this morning in the big cities. High today will not be dramatically different then yesterday. It will reach the upper 50s north and 60s south. It will be cooler tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Highs tomorrow will cool the 40s and near 50.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S.(East TX, Delta, and east to Carolinas) - It was pleasant yesterday with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. But of course FL was again in the 80s as they have been for "ages". Warmer than normal weather will continue the next several days. High today and tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s north and 70s south (80s in FL). Lows will be in the 60s and some 70s.

SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER (Southwest NE to north TX Panhandle) - Highs yesterday were in the mid to upper 50s north and near 70 south. Temps early this morning were in the 30s to near 40. It will be glorious here the next few days. High today will be in the upper 60s and some 70s.

NORTHERN PLAINS WEATHER (Eastern MT to northwest MN) - Most of the region had highs in the 40s but eastern ND and northern MN where there is snow cover was in the 35-40 range. Temps early this morning were mostly in the 20s and 30s. Highs today will range from the lower 40s east to the 50s central and west. Lows tonight will be in the 20s and highs tomorrow mostly in the 40s.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK and GENERAL OVERVIEW OF U.S. PATTERN - Not surprisingly the extended forecast model this morning is not as deep with the troughs it tries to develop and is also faster in their movement. What does this mean? It means that today's model is actually warmer than yesterday's (and yesterday's was quite mild) especially for the Midwest and Northeast. There is absolutely no fundamental change in the overall weather pattern which features a basically zonal (west to east) flow across the Pacific and is no way any real cold air can penetrate the U.S. In fact, not only does the U.S. look North America. Thus, without a strong ridge aloft anchored along the west coast, there warm, but even most of Canada will have above normal temps. As I have been stating for the past 1-2 weeks now, this pattern is conducive to strong Chinook type effects and "Indian Summer" weather with no real end in sight. Our outlook (issued in late October) of a wamrer than normal November for especially the east 1\2 of the nation now appears to be a sure bet. Also, we have seen nothing change our thinking of an overall warmer than normal winter (Dec. through Feb.). As I have stated in the past, there seems to be a major misconception that because El Nino winters tend to be warm, then it must mean that La Nina winters must be cold. That simply is not true, particularly with moderate to strong La Ninas as we now have. The years years that we tend to have cold winters are concentrated in those in which there is neither an El Nino nor a La Nina. For more details on the Winter outlook and other very interesting features, subscribe to our monthly newsletter, Trade Winds. Getting back to the more immediate future, I once again see a great chance for record breaking warm temps from the Plains through the Midwest and possibly even in the Northeast over the course of the next 10 days. It sure looks to me as if the NWS 6-10 released yesterday afternoon went too cool for the Eastern States. It looks above to much above rather than normal. In the Midwest, it looks especially warm for late this week through the weekend when it could easily reach the mid 60s at Chicago and possibly even 70. The best chance for some rain in the Midwest is early next week.

Max temps expected today through December 4 for key cities:
CHICAGO 56, 57, 56, 63, 64, 61, 59, 55, 55, 53, 48
NEW YORK 59, 49, 59, 52, 59, 60, 62, 62, 55, 58, 58
ATLANTA 67, 67, 65, 67, 69, 72, 72, 67, 63, 60, 60
HOUSTON 79, 79, 79, 80, 80, 74, 69, 64, 65, 68, 68
LAX 70, 80, 70, 67, 67, 69, 71, 69, 71, 72, 69

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