Early Morning Comments w/extended outlook

This report is probably the most important on the Energy.Net site. It is usually prepared by meteorologists Charlie Notis or Craig Solberg and is available at about 7:00 AM Central Time each day. The report consists of three main parts. The first gives a very brief 1-2 sentence regional outlook of the next 8 days. The second gives a very detailed forecast of the next couple days for each U.S. region. Finally, the third and probably most important part, describes the overall U.S. weather pattern for the next 1-2 weeks. Within this part, a description of the 6-10 day outlook is also found. Specific 10 day temperature forecasts for key cities are at the end of the extended outlook.

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Sample Report:

Current Energy Market Morning Weather Update

NORTHEAST-Above normal temperatures most days.

MIDWEST-A wet work week. Some flooding problems? Above normal temperatures most of the next 10 days across much of the region.

SOUTHEAST-Lots of rain rest of work week. Some severe weather possible. Warmer temperatures this week, but still below normal for the 6-10.

NORTHWESTERN U.S.-A little cooler this work week, but warmer than normal again for the 6-10.

SOUTHWESTERN U.S.-Very cool for the season next several days but gradually warming to above normal for the 6-10.

FREESE-NOTIS HIGHLIGHTS and SHORT RANGE FORECAST FOR ENERGY USAGE 7:00 AM CDT, TUESDAY, 3-09-10

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MIDWESTERN U.S.(NE to OH and southern MN to southern IL) - Rains have spread across much of the western Cornbelt overnight. This is the start of a wet work week (see details on extended outlook). There will be little rain in the far eastern Cornbelt through tomorrow. Highs yesterday ranged from the 30s northwest to the 60s just south of St. Louis. Highs today will range from the upper 30s northwest to the 60s extreme south. Highs tomorrow will range from the low 40s northwest to the 60s south and east. In fact, the area from St. Louis south could reach the 70s tomorrow. Chicago will reach 50 today and 59 tomorrow. Normal is 44.

NORTHEASTERN U.S. MEGALOPOLIS - It got considerably warmer than expected yesterday. Highs topped out at 59 at both New York and Boston and 60 to 62 from Philly to DC. It will be cooler the next couple days but no big deal. New York will reach 56 today and 52 tomorrow. Normal is 48.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S.(East TX, Delta, and east to Carolinas) - Rains had spread into much of the Delta the past 24 hours. Quite a lot of rain will fall from the Delta through much of the Southeast the next few days. Amounts will average 0.50-2.00". Some severe storms are also possible. Highs today will be in the 60s and 70s. Highs tomorrow will be mostly in the 60s east and 70s west.

SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER (Southwest NE to north TX Panhandle) - There was very good coverage of 0.25-0.75" rains across most of the region. Southwest NE picked up more than an inch the past 24 hours. Most of the rains will be confined to the north and east portion the next couple days where additional 0.50-1.00"+ amounts are expected. There will be some rains elsewhere as well, but the coverage will likely not be that great. Highs today will range from the 40s northwest to the 60s and near 70 south and southeast. Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 30s northwest to the upper 60s southeast. There will likely be several inches of wet snow accumulating in CO, northwest KS, and southwest NE tomorrow night into Thursday morning.

NORTHERN PLAINS WEATHER (Eastern MT to northwest MN) - Rain or a mixture of rain and snow has spread into the east portion overnight. Precipitation will spread into the west and especially southwest portion of the region the next 12 to 36 hours. Some heavy, wet snow accumulations are likely in these areas. Melted precipitation amounts will average 0.25-1.00" (heaviest in the south). Highs will be in the 30s.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK and GENERAL OVERVIEW OF U.S. PATTERN - I do not see any dramatic changes this morning either in the short range or in the longer range 2 week outlook. First of all, there will be a lot of rain across the Midwest through the rest of the work week. As I stated yesterday, virtually every spot in the Cornbelt will get at least 0.75" of rain. However, there will be places that get more than 2 inches of rain when it is all said and done. This is especially the case for the western Cornbelt. The rains could mix with or change to some wet snow later in the week in the west. Obviously, the rains combined with melting snow could result in some flooding. However, as I stated yesterday, it could be worse. The fact that highs will not get any higher than the low 40s or so in the the northwest Cornbelt where the deep snow cover exists will help out. Also, the rain will not come all at once. It will be spread out over several days. The other good news in terms of the flooding potential is that after this week, it looks considerably drier. To me, this seems like the best case scenario with the flooding potential. We will be melting a lot of the snow in that area this week. And the fact that it will be dry and warmer than normal for the 6-10 will help to melt whatever snow remains on the ground. A worst case scenario would have been a deep snow cover, and temperatures suddenly rise to the 50s and 60s with heavy rains. We will not see anything like that. The news is also good for the Red River Valley area of the northern Plains. There will be slow melting there this week. A dry and warmer than normal 6-10 will also help with the slow melting process. For the new 6-10 day period, March 15-19, I am showing an area of below normal temperatures from the southeast Plains, through the Delta and Southeast. I have a narrow strip of normal to the north and west of this. The rest of the nation will enjoy above normal temperatures. Precipitation will average below normal for the Plains and Midwest and near to below for the Delta and Southeast. For the 11-15 day period, March 20-24, I am going for roughly the same outlook as that of the 6-10. The normal line reaches as far north as about New York City and stretches west and southwest to near El Paso, TX. The rest of the nation to the north of this line will continue to enjoy above normal temperatures.

Max temps expected today through March 19 for key cities. Normals are in parentheses:

CHICAGO 50, 59, 57, 55, 50, 48, 48, 51, 52, 52, 50 (44 to 47)
CINCINNATI: 59, 66, 65, 63, 57, 54, 53, 52, 56, 57, 57 (52 to 55)
NEW YORK: 56, 52, 55, 61, 58, 58, 55, 53, 52, 52, 56 (48 to 51)
ATLANTA: 66, 58, 69, 71, 62, 60, 60, 61, 63, 63, 64 (63 to 66)
HOUSTON: 77, 75, 75, 68, 68, 70, 70, 70, 70, 71, 71 (72 to 74)
BURBANK: 61, 65, 69, 72, 72, 72, 75, 75, 74, 74, 75 (70 to 71)

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