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Noon Update
This short but very important update is issued at about Noon Central Time each Monday through Friday when the markets are open. This report deals with any important changes since the early morning major report was issued.
Sample Report:
Energy Market
11:55 AM CST MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 1998
Noon Weather Update:MIDWEST U.S.
The most important statement that I have been emphasizing over and over again the past month or so is that, "without any strong ridging aloft anchored along the west coast of North America, there is no way the eastern half or so of the nation can maintain any real cold weather". On the contrary, a pattern of Pacific waves moving from west to east across the U.S. leads to mostly much above normal temps. That is precisely the pattern that we are in with no end in sight. This pattern leads to "Indian Summer" weather on quite a few days. We already had some record highs in the western Midwest over the weekend and this is just a sample of things to come. Looking at the 11-15 day Ensemble models (brings us to Dec. 8), there is still no hint of any change in this amazingly warm weather pattern for the season. Once again, I see nothing to change our thinking of a warmer than normal winter of 1998-1999. As I have stated before, there seems to be misconceptions about La Nina and winter weather in the U.S. The common thinking is that since El Nino is associated with warm winters, then "certainly La Ninas are associated with cold winters". That simply is not true. We still tend to have warmer than normal winters with moderate to strong La Ninas. The time we tend to have cold winters is when we have NEITHER an El Nino or a La Nina (in other words, normal conditions in Pacific). In fact, one year that we are using as an analogue was 1975-76 (moderate to strong La Nina). In November of 1975 we had the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald with an identical extremely intense low pressure system to the one that we had about 13 years ago. The winter of 1975-76 was one of the warmest on record.
NORTHEASTERN U.S. MEGALOPOLIS
No change. See above.
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